We Estimate Effort, Not Time! The Lie Teams Tell Themselves About Their Estimations
Story Points vs Reality - Let's See What Data Tells Us
Have you ever checked the correlation between your story point estimates and how long work actually takes? I've analyzed real data that might surprise you.
Here's what the evidence shows!
Exhibit A: Story Points vs "In Progress" Workdays
This visualization from a Jira dashboard tracks story point estimates against actual workdays spent "in progress".
A quick note: “Workdays” in Jira means weekends are excluded.
That can be confusing when you're thinking in calendar days — especially during conversations with stakeholders.
Imperfect? Definitely. But it still gives you a rough sense of how much of your precious estimation effort is quietly wasted.:
Exhibit B: "Story Points Spent" vs Cycle Time
This chart compares "story points spent" (points developers assign after marking items as "done") against the total cycle time between defined workflow start and finish points.
Interesting, right? Please take a moment to analyze these charts.
Do you see any meaningful difference between items estimated at 1, 2, or 3 points?
They look remarkably similar, don't they?
Also, don’t they look like random number generators?
When confronted with this disconnect, teams often respond:
"But we estimate effort and not time!"
And that's exactly the conversation we need to have!
This attachment to estimation despite contradictory evidence might be related to the sunk cost fallacy. We've invested so heavily in refining estimation processes, capacity calculation spreadsheets, and PTO alerts that it's difficult to let go.
Try this simple exercise yourself. Create a chart comparing your estimated story points on one axis to the actual cycle time of each user story on the other.
I bet you'll be surprised by what you find!
If you're experiencing this disconnect, let's discuss how to improve your ways of working. You can:
Schedule a mentorship session with me
Request a "Flow Metrics & Probabilistic Forecasts Training" for your company
Sign up for an "Applying Professional Kanban Training" workshop
Join my APK Kanban Course to improve your workflow and leverage flow metrics. We'll explore more effective approaches to estimation and alternatives to traditional story pointing altogether.
What about you? Have you ever checked how accurate your estimations were? What actions did you take?